Flávio Bolsonaro has forced Brazil’s presidential contest into a decisive runoff after defeating incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round but falling short of an outright majority. With nearly all ballots tallied, the 45-year-old son of former president Jair Bolsonaro secured about 47% of the vote to Lula’s 45.1%, setting up a 25 October head-to-head.
The results mark a striking advance for Brazil’s right and far right. Bolsonaro not only captured a strong share of the presidential vote, but Bolsonarista candidates scored numerous victories across the country. Members of the Bolsonaro family claimed prominent legislative wins: Carlos Bolsonaro and former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro both won Senate seats, while Jair Renan, the youngest son, was elected to the lower house. In São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, once Bolsonaro’s infrastructure minister, was reelected governor — an important triumph in Brazil’s most populous and economically pivotal state. Overall, 34 of the 54 new senators come from right-leaning or far-right parties.
Bolsonaro enters the runoff as the favorite, likely to consolidate additional rightwing votes from minor candidates who together took several percentage points in the first round. Figures such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos drew modest support that could now consolidate behind Bolsonaro’s bid.
Addressing supporters in Brasília, Flávio Bolsonaro framed the outcome as “the end of an era” for Lula’s Workers’ Party, casting himself as focused on Brazil’s future rather than clinging to power. His message resonated with voters frustrated by economic pressures and urban violence—issues that helped tilt sentiment in the closing days of the campaign.
Lula, 80, accepted the first-round setback in São Paulo and vowed to intensify efforts in the run-off. He told supporters the campaign’s next phase will make the contrast between the two candidates clear and insisted he was ready to fight for a historic fourth non-consecutive term. In public remarks, Lula warned voters about Bolsonaro’s “dark past,” referencing the latter’s documented ties to criminal networks in Rio de Janeiro and employment of individuals linked to violent crime. Lula’s allies painted the election as a critical contest against a far-right movement they argue threatens Brazil’s democratic institutions — a movement that less than four years ago culminated in an attempted coup in Brasília following Jair Bolsonaro’s 2022 defeat.
The political stakes extend beyond the presidency. Voters also elected state governors, members of state parliaments, 513 federal deputies and 54 senators. Bolsonaristas prioritized the Senate, which has unique authority over judicial oversight and can impeach Supreme Court justices — a power some on the right view as necessary following rulings that resulted in former president Jair Bolsonaro’s imprisonment on charges related to a failed coup attempt.
Public reaction to the results was polarized. In left-leaning neighborhoods of Rio de Janeiro, where many had anticipated a Lula victory, celebrations turned to disappointment as the night wore on. Business owner Marcelo Mac lamented what he called a popular choice for “retrogression,” expressing bafflement that the son of a man who once sought to overturn an election could now be poised to lead the nation.
For Bolsonaro supporters, the victory offers both political opportunity and personal ambition. Flávio has openly spoken of a desire to free his father, who is serving a lengthy sentence tied to the 2022 post-election unrest. He has also appealed for strategic voting from conservatives who may not be committed Bolsonaristas but prefer him to Lula.
International dimensions also shaped the campaign. Lula accused U.S. President Donald Trump of attempting to influence the vote to favor Bolsonaro, suggesting such interference aims at increasing U.S. sway over Brazil’s natural resources. Bolsonaro, by contrast, has promised closer ties with Trump and a foreign policy more aligned with Washington, a stance that could affect regional geopolitics if he wins.
As Brazilians prepare for the runoff on 25 October, the contest has narrowed into a stark binary choice between a leftist veteran promising social and democratic continuity and a far-right challenger promising a sharp redirection of policy and power. Both camps are mobilizing for a high-stakes, high-intensity campaign in the weeks ahead, with the future direction of Latin America’s largest democracy hanging in the balance.
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