Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Moscow could consider using all weapons available to it, including nuclear weapons, if Russia's Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad were directly attacked or blockaded by Western forces.
Speaking at the Valdai foreign policy forum, Putin said Russia was not threatening other countries but would respond if it faced what Moscow regarded as aggression. His comments came after repeated statements from Western officials about concerns that Russia could potentially prepare for a wider conflict with Europe later this decade.
Kaliningrad is a strategically important Russian territory located between NATO members Poland and Lithuania and separated from mainland Russia. Its position has made the region a major focus of security concerns since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
During his speech, Putin accused NATO of conducting military activities in the Baltic Sea that he said created a threat to Kaliningrad. He argued that if Western countries attempted to isolate the territory from the rest of Russia, Moscow would consider using all available military capabilities.
“If it comes to a direct attack on the Russian Federation,” Putin said, the use of Russia's available weapons would immediately become an issue.
He also referred specifically to nuclear weapons, saying Russia could respond with “all means and forces” if Kaliningrad were subjected to a Western blockade. Putin insisted that Moscow did not intend to attack European countries, but warned that Russia would respond if it believed it had come under attack.
NATO has rejected the suggestion that its military activities in the Baltic region are preparations for an attack on Russia. Secretary General Mark Rutte said that NATO exercises and other activities posed no threat to Moscow and described Russia's nuclear messaging as unhelpful.
Tensions have increased across the Baltic region in recent months amid accusations of Russian hybrid warfare. Poland recently reported that a Russian military helicopter had crossed into its airspace near the Kaliningrad border. Lithuania has also raised concerns about drones entering its airspace and said its population increasingly feels threatened by Russia.
Germany has separately warned that it is preparing for potentially serious hybrid attacks. Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Berlin was strengthening its preparations after a drone carrying explosives was reportedly discovered in August on the runway at Leipzig airport, near aircraft involved in transporting cargo to Ukraine.
Putin also used his Valdai speech to repeat Russia's argument that the West bears responsibility for the broader conflict in Ukraine. Although Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Putin said Moscow had been forced to defend itself against Western pressure.
He also linked Russia's recent attacks on Ukrainian economic and energy infrastructure to Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil refineries and vessels in the Black Sea. Putin acknowledged that Ukraine's attacks had achieved some success and claimed they had contributed to an estimated loss of about 1% of Russia's GDP.
Ukraine, however, says its strikes on Russian oil infrastructure are intended to disrupt a major source of funding for Russia's war effort. Russia has repeatedly attacked Ukrainian energy facilities and other infrastructure since the invasion began, with large-scale strikes particularly frequent during winter.
Another major concern for NATO countries is the Suwalki Gap, the narrow land corridor connecting Poland and Lithuania while separating Kaliningrad from Belarus. Western military planners have long regarded the area as strategically important because of its potential role in any conflict involving NATO's eastern flank.
Lithuania has prepared contingency plans for a possible Russian invasion, while thousands of NATO troops are stationed across the region as part of the alliance's eastern defenses.
Putin also warned about the growing role of artificial intelligence and digital technology in modern warfare. He argued that increasingly automated weapons could make conflict resemble a game, potentially lowering barriers to the use of force.
Reflecting on the world's nuclear arsenals, Putin compared powerful weapons to a gun placed on a theatre stage, suggesting that once such a weapon is present, there is always a danger it could eventually be used.
His remarks underline the continuing tension between Russia and NATO, particularly around the Baltic Sea, where military deployments, airspace incidents and competing security claims have increased concerns about a potential escalation.
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