Yemen's Houthi forces have launched a major effort to seize control of the country's Red Sea coastline. They claim to have captured the strategic port of Mocha in the biggest clashes with the Saudi government in years. If the Houthis consolidate their control of the coast south of Hodeida, it would bring Iranian-aligned forces much closer to two crucial maritime chokepoints for global trade: the Bab al-Mandeb in the southern Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf.
This escalation of fighting marks a worrying escalation since the UN-brokered ceasefire in April 2022. Experts view this operation as part of a larger Houthi objective to open a second front in the larger Iran-US conflict, complementing the pressure being exerted in the Gulf. The Royal United Services Institute in London has warned that the situation in Yemen is deteriorating, noting that the internationally recognized Yemeni government itself has opened new fronts against the rebels to halt their advance.
The recent five-day conflict has resulted in heavy losses: ACLED, which monitors the conflict, estimates 276 deaths. The Houthis say they now control Mocha, the inner city of Hays, and the Khalid ibn al-Walid military camp—the largest base in the area—and have captured approximately 6,000 square kilometers of territory. Yemeni government army commander Major General Tarek Saleh said his troops had made a strategic withdrawal south of Mocha to regroup after suffering heavy losses. He blamed Iran for planning and supporting the attack.
Saudi Arabia has carried out heavy airstrikes, flying more than 40 sorties a day and carrying out at least 15 attacks since early September. Riyadh's offensive is aimed at thwarting Houthi advances, but government sources believe the rebels have gained ground on the western coast and attacked strategic Red Sea islands, including Zuqar and Hanish. There is also renewed debate in the Kingdom over whether to retain support under the Mecca Defense Pact with Pakistan and Turkey, although this agreement is considered largely defensive and unlikely to be used for operations in Yemen.
The clashes have occurred in several governorates—Ad Dali, al-Bayda, Marib, Shabwah, al-Jawf, Hodeidah, and Taiz—straining resources on both sides. At the beginning of the current phase, the Houthis were pushed back in some sectors as fighting on multiple fronts overstretched their manpower. Nevertheless, the rebels appear intent on exploiting political and military rifts within the Yemeni government. Disunity and a lack of a unified command, as well as the UAE's withdrawal of financial and military support for southern forces earlier this year, have weakened government unity. Southern separatist forces, previously supported by the UAE, are resisting the extension of hostilities beyond their territory.
Analysts warn that a quick easing of tensions is unlikely. Sherwan Hindrin Ali of ACLED said both sides are prepared to continue fighting until they inflict enough damage on each other to force a truce. Ali said that militarily, the balance is more equal than before the 2022 ceasefire, which could prolong fighting on the Red Sea frontline, where both parties seek control of territory that impacts access to the Bab al-Mandeb.
The stakes extend beyond Yemen's borders. Houthi blockades of Red Sea shipping and attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have already contributed to a surge in oil prices, which have climbed above $100 per barrel after trading near $80 for a few weeks. The rebels' campaign has included attacks on Saudi energy sites and southern cities using drones and ballistic missiles, prompting Saudi retaliatory strikes.
The current tensions are rooted in recent diplomatic and military moves. In July, a senior Houthi delegation attended a ceremony in Tehran and returned on an Iranian plane—a move the Saudi military responded to by bombing a runway in Sanaa. The Houthis subsequently announced a "blockade" on Saudi shipping in the Red Sea, calling it retaliation for the disruption of Iranian oil shipments to the Gulf. Subsequent attacks followed: on July 25, on a Saudi facility in Jazan, and on a tanker near Yanbu in late August.
For Saudi Arabia, securing the Red Sea lanes has become crucial after Iran's actions at Hormuz blocked traditional routes to the Gulf. Control of Yemen's western coast would give the Houthis—and their Iranian backers—a powerful means to influence regional maritime traffic and exert pressure on Riyadh and its Western partners. With both sides remaining entrenched and regional rifts widening, the fighting risks further international repercussions unless diplomatic channels can stem the escalation and restore a durable ceasefire.
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