Votes are being counted in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt, where the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) is leading in the polls and could make history by becoming the first radical right-wing party to rule a state since World War II. Recent surveys have shown the AfD winning around 40% of the vote, well ahead of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which has around 23%.
AfD frontrunner Ulrich Siegmund – a former CDU member – has predicted his party could win an outright majority, allowing the AfD to govern alone and avoid the so-called "firewall" policy of mainstream parties that refuse to cooperate with it. Locally, the AfD has already challenged the informal cordon sanitaire where other parties were unwilling to partner with it.
If the AfD fails to win a majority, a CDU-led government will most likely be formed under the leadership of current state Premier Sven Schulz, although coalition negotiations could take weeks, depending on which smaller parties pass the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament. This threshold is crucial: if several smaller parties fail to cross it, the AfD's share of seats could be large enough to reach an absolute majority without winning a significant number of votes.
The election is being closely watched beyond Saxony-Anhalt, as the AfD sees a state victory as a stepping stone to national ambitions, and the party aims to achieve a breakthrough in the center-left in 2029. The contest also highlights differences within conservative ranks: Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose own approval rating is weak, has urged his colleagues to embrace the AfD's message more effectively rather than ignoring it. Speaking at a campaign event in Lower Saxony, Merz said leaders needed to “focus on current issues” and exercise caution in their rhetoric, citing controversial comments by Saxony-Anhalt AfD leader Martin Reichardt, which had criticized some segments of German society as inflammatory.
Tensions surrounding the vote were evident at public demonstrations in the state capital, Magdeburg, the night before the election, where thousands of people attended a “festival of democracy” in support of an open, cohesive society. Organizers estimated a turnout of 15,000 to 20,000 people, indicating strong public interest and concern about the potential rise of a far-right state government.
The campaign patterns in Saxony-Anhalt reflect the larger political situation in Germany: frustration over issues like migration, the economy, and public services has boosted support for the AfD in several eastern states. The party has capitalized on dissatisfaction with the old parties, and its rise highlights the challenges for the CDU and other mainstream forces seeking to win back voters who are shifting toward populist alternatives.
An AfD victory—especially an outright majority—would be a constitutional and political test in Germany. While state governments have considerable latitude, the prospect of a right-wing administration leading a German state is unprecedented in the post-war era and could alter the political calculus at the national level. It would also force mainstream parties to rethink their strategies, ranging from a firm lack of cooperation to tactical engagement, as evidenced by Merz's distinct language and outreach appeal.
Preliminary results from Saxony-Anhalt were expected around 16:00 GMT (18:00 local time) on Sunday. The emerging results will determine whether the AfD's months-long lead in opinion polls translates into governing, whether a CDU-led coalition can be formed, or whether a fragmented parliament creates the conditions for protracted coalition negotiations. Regardless of which way the vote goes, the election will have repercussions across Germany, shaping party strategy and public debate ahead of the next federal election cycle.
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